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A prognostic model for amputation in critical lower limb ischemia

Department of Public Health, Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Erasmus MC; Vascular Unit, Department of General Surgery, Erasmus MC – University Medical Center Rotterdam h.klomp{at}nki.nl

EW Steyerberg

Department of Public Health, Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Erasmus MC

CHA Wittens

Vascular Unit, Department of General Surgery, Erasmus MC – University Medical Center Rotterdam

H van Urk

Vascular Unit, Department of General Surgery, Erasmus MC – University Medical Center Rotterdam

JDF Habbema

Department of Public Health, Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Erasmus MC

For the ESES study group

Abstract

In a (negative) multicenter randomized trial on management for inoperable critical lower limb ischemia, comparing spinal cord stimulation and best medical treatment, a number of pre-defined factors were analyzed for prognostic value. We included a radiological arterial disease score, modified from the SVS/ISCVS runoff score. The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate clinical factors and commonly used circulatory measurements for prognostic modeling in patients with critical lower limb ischemia. We determined the incidence of amputation and its relation to various pre-defined risk factors. A total of 120 patients with critical limb ischemia were included in the study. The integrity of circulation in the affected limb was evaluated on five levels: suprainguinal, infrainguinal, popliteal, infrapopliteal and pedal. A total radiological arterial disease score was calculated from 1 (full integrity of circulation) to 20 (maximally compromised state). We used Cox regression analysis to quantify prognostic effects and differential treatment (predictive) effects. Major amputation occurred in 33% of the patients at 6 months and in 51% at 2 years. The presence of ischemic skin lesions and the radiological arterial disease score were independent prognostic factors for amputation. Patients with ulcerations or gangrene had a higher amputation risk (hazard ratio 2.38, p = 0.018 and 2.30, p = 0.036 respectively) as well as patients with a higher radiological arterial disease score (hazard ratio 1.17 per increment, p = 0.003). We did not observe significant interactions between prognostic factors and the effect of spinal cord stimulation. In conclusion, in patients with critical lower limb ischemia, the presence of ischemic skin lesions and the described radiological arterial disease score can be used to estimate amputation risk.

Key Words: amputation • peripheral arterial disease • predictive value of tests • prognosis • randomized controlled trials

Vascular Medicine, Vol. 14, No. 2, 109-115 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/1358863X08098227


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